The End of the Year is really under pressure for Global Finance Markets. Indeed we assist since the beginning of 2018 to a real slow down of the World Economy as we refer to IHS Markit Indicator especially if we consider US Economy, European Union and Japan. Nevertheless the global growth should be around 3.2% for 2018.
But according to IHS Markit, the global growth could be to 3% or less on 2019 and we have the premise that this scenario takes place because we assist from September 2018 as a beginning of a crack on stock-market in every financial market place.
And the evidence is here and could not lie to people because figures talk directly.
From October to 28th december :
Dow Jones fall down to : -13.5%
Nasdaq fall down to : - 18.1%
Footsie fall down to : -10.6%
CAC 40 fall down to : - 15%
Nikkei 225 fall down to : - 17.5%
Dax fall down to : - 14.3%
Milan made an exception : +1.4% but loose 16.5% from January to December 28th.
But another point is quite interesting to discuss is about the hedge fund in the US where 563 funds closed this year according to Hedge Fund Research.
Now as the year 2018 comes to a close, the $3.2 trillion industry is headed for its worst annual performance since 2011.
This means that Finance is not in good situation and it is worrisome for global finance in 2019.
Other point, Bonds Market will be under pressure and it started on last November. The reason is spread on high yield bonds has widened and investors started to be anxious and this fact affect all bonds market has fixed income and so on.
Why Bonds Market fall ? Some events in 2018 announce this downturn.
- Global Economy Growth slow down.
- Interest Rate rise in the US who have a real impact on US economy and other countries in the world.
- International Trade is under pressure between China and the US.
- The end of quantitative easing in Europe and fear of a lack of liquidity.
- Social problem who rise permanently all over the world.
Moreover, the Chief-Analyst of JP Morgan, M. Kolanovic prevents that 2019 could be hard for Global Economy and Finance. Hoping this scenario could not happen.